Cleveland's Carmona takes on Royals shooting for 17th win

Baseball Betting Lines

09/15/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fausto Carmona goes for win No. 17 this evening when the Cleveland Indians continue their three-game series against the Kansas City Royals at Jacobs Field.

Carmona has been a pleasant surprise for the AL Central-leading Indians this season, going 16-8 with a 3.20 earned run average, just one year after finishing 1-10 with a 5.42 ERA.

The 23-year-old righty won his second straight start on Monday against the Chicago White Sox, as he allowed one earned run and three hits in seven innings.

Carmona has beaten the Royals twice already this season and is 2-0 against them in his young career with a 3.77 ERA in six games, four of which have been starts.

Kansas City will counter with right-hander Zack Greinke, who is 6-5 this season with a save and a 3.99 ERA. After three scoreless outings in his three starts since re-joining the rotation, Greinke was roughed up by the New York Yankees on Sunday for three runs and six hits in 3 2/3 innings, but did not factor in the decision of his team's 6-3 loss.

Greinke has faced the Indians 14 times (nine starts) and is 3-5 against them with a 4.39 ERA.

In the first game of this set on Friday, Casey Blake hit a game-ending home run in the bottom of the ninth, as the Indians rallied from three back for a 5-4 win. Franklin Gutierrez started the comeback with a two-run homer in the seventh and Victor Martinez added a solo shot in the eighth for Cleveland, which remained in firm control of the AL Central by 5 1/2 games with the win.

Blake led off the home-half of the ninth and turned on a David Riske (1-4) offering, depositing it over the left-field wall before being mobbed by his teammates at home. It was the 12th time this season that Cleveland won in its final at-bat at home.

With the win, the Indians improved to 16-4 in their last 20 games overall with their eighth win in nine home contests. They have 45 victories at Jacobs Field, their most since finishing 48-33 in 2000.

C.C. Sabathia set a new career high with 13 strikeouts, but allowed four runs over seven innings. The bullpen was lights out from there, with Joe Borowski (4-5) picking up the win after a scoreless ninth.

Brian Bannister allowed just one run on two hits over six frames for the Royals, who have dropped eight of nine. Bannister's bullpen failed him, however. Mark Grudzielanek had two RBI in defeat.

The Indians have taken eight of their 13 meetings with the Royals this season, including five of seven encounters held at Jacobs Field. Kansas City is just 4-12 in Cleveland since the start of the 2006 season.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.