Chase heads west to California

Autoracing Betting Lines

10/06/2009 - Fontana, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, October 11. Race: Pepsi 500. Site: Auto Club Speedway. Track: two-mile oval. Start Time: 3:15 p.m. (et). Laps: 250. Miles: 500. Defending Winner: Jimmie Johnson. Television: ABC. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS XM Satellite.

Last Sunday at Kansas, ten of the top-11 finishers were Chase drivers, as the points battle for the Sprint Cup Series championship tightened. Only 114 points separate leader Mark Martin from eighth-place Greg Biffle heading into the Pepsi 500 at California -- the fourth race in the playoffs.

"It shows how competitive the Chase is," said Kansas race winner Tony Stewart, who moved up to fourth in points (-67).

Stewart, in his first year as driver and owner, captured his fourth victory of the season. The two-time Cup Series champion finished 14th at New Hampshire and seventh at ninth at Dover before winning at Kansas.

In February, Stewart finished eighth at California in just his second race with his new Stewart-Haas Racing team.

"We were still just learning each other going into California in the spring," Stewart said. "So going around this time, we obviously know each other better. We've had time to make mistakes and make decisions that worked for me, and we've learned the feel that I like together, and that's something that will help us. I'm anticipating California a lot more this time than in the spring."

After finishing seventh at Kansas, Martin padded his lead to 18 points over Hendrick Motorsports teammate and three-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson, who finished ninth.

Johnson excels at the upcoming tracks on the schedule. The El Cajon, CA native returns to his hometrack this weekend as the winner of the last two fall races there. After California, the series runs at Charlotte and then Martinsville. Johnson has five victories at Charlotte and has won five of the last six races at Martinsville.

"They really are great tracks for us," Johnson said. "I think the season comes to us in a way. I know that we perform well in the Chase, but I think the schedule is helpful for the No.48 car. We have great results, and it gives us a lot of hope going into these tracks, but we still have to show up and get the job done."

Johnson has recorded five straight top-10 finishes at California. He dominated last year's fall race there, leading 228 of 250 laps.

Martin will compete in California's second date of the season for the first time since 2006. He has missed the event in the past two years due to his limited Cup schedule. Martin suffered engine failure and ended up with a 40th- place finish at California earlier this year.

Juan Pablo Montoya has been superb in the Chase so far. Montoya, in his first year in the playoffs, is the only driver who has scored top-five finishes in the first three Chase races. He's hoping his momentum will continue, but California has been one of his tougher tracks.

"I would rather have Atlanta to be honest," Montoya said. "I always run really well at Atlanta. At the same time we ran pretty good [at California] the last time we were there. It was very early in the season, and even then I think we had decent cars. Right now, we've got much more competitive cars."

Montoya is now third in points (-51). He has finished no better than 11th in his first five races at California. Montoya had a third-place run last month at Atlanta.

With California's second date of the season now moved to October , drivers and teams are expecting different track conditions, which should make for an interesting race.

"Conditions will be cooler," said Kurt Busch, who is currently fifth in points (-91). "The track most likely will be faster."

Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Pepsi 500.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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