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06/03/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pick the horses out of a hat for Saturday's running of the $1 million Belmont Stakes. Any of the 12 horses has a good chance of winning the third jewel of racing's Triple Crown.
The two second-place horses from the first two legs of the series are the lukewarm favorites with the Dwyer Stakes winner the third choice. Ice Box is 3-1 in the program, First Dude is 7-2 and Fly Down is 9-2. None of the other nine entrants are less than 10-1 in the morning-line.
Ice Box and Fly Down are trained by two-time Belmont winner Nick Zito. Uptowncharlybrown, 10-1, is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin who had Jazil win the 2006 Belmont. Bob Baffert, who sends out Game On Dude, won the 2001 Belmont with favorite Point Given and Todd Pletcher, who trains Interactif, won the 2007 running with the filly Rags to Riches.
"Obviously (with favorites), there's more pressure, anxiety, on the other hand, if they run well, you have to be content," said Zito. "I always like to steal Billy Turner's line, 'It's pressure when you don't have Seattle Slew."
Post position should have no bearing on the outcome of the race. Belmont Park is the largest track in the country and all the jockeys are veteran riders. Alan Garcia, a young up and coming reinsman, won the race two years ago aboard Da' Tara.
Garcia and John Velazquez are the only two riders in the race to have won the Test of Champions. Velazquez won aboard Rags to Riches.
Ice Box won the Florida Derby, went off at better than 11-1 in the Run for the Roses and finished a fast closing second to Super Saver. His stablemate Fly Down was ninth in the Louisiana Derby and had a five week break before winning the Dwyer.
First Dude likes to be near the lead. He was fifth in the Florida Derby, third in the Blue Grass Stakes to Stately Victor and got second in the Preakness after being on the lead.
"He's a big, strong, long-striding colt, and this track should suit him," said trainer Dale Romans about First Dude.
Along with Uptowncharlybrown the other 10-1 horses in the race are Make Music for Me and Game On Dude. Uptowncharlybrown raced at Tampa Bay Downs this winter where he won the Pasco Stakes, was third in the Sam F. Davis and fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby. he was third in the Lexington behind recent winner Exhi.
"He's been doing great since we got him, and I am excited about our chances," said McLaughlin who succeeds the late Alan Seewald as Uptowncharlybrown's trainer. "I'm looking forward to running him."
Make Music for Me is trained by Alexis Barba, who can become the first female trainer to win the Belmont. The colt was fourth in the Kentucky Derby after being sixth in the Blue Grass.
Game On Dude is coming off a win in the Lone Star Derby in Texas. Earlier he was seventh in the Florida Derby and fifth in the Derby Trial.
"I am looking forward to seeing what he will do going a distance of ground," said Baffert. "That's the key to the Belmont -- having a horse who can go that far."
None of the horses in the race may ever run 1 1/2-miles again.
Veteran trainer Bill Mott is going after his first Belmont Stakes victory. He trains Drosselmeyer for WinStar Farm, the owner of Kentucky Derby champ Super Saver. Drosselmeyer was fourth in the Risen Star Stakes as the 2-1 favorite, came back to be third in the Louisiana Derby and was second in the Dwyer as the 7-10 favorite.
"I think he's in there with a chance," said Mott about his horse who is 12-1.
Also at 12-1 in the program is Interactif. As a two-year-old he did very well on the turf, winning two stakes and finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Earlier this year he was second in the San Felipe Stakes and fourth in the Blue Grass.
Blue Grass Stakes winner Stately Victor is 15-1 in the morning-line. Trained by Mike Maker, the chestnut colt was eighth in the Run for the Roses.
Dave in Dixie and Stay Put are both 20-1 in the program and Spangles Star brings up the rear at 30-1.
Close your eyes and pick a winner. I like Make Music for Me to be part of the exacta. Throw in any of the other horses and you got yourself a winning ticket.
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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout
An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.
Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off. Randy was not impressed though. Paula thought he started off fantastic. "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either.
Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed. Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact. He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition.
Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula. Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.
Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next. Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential. Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell. He sang "Careless Whisper".
22 year old Chris Richardson was up next. He was listed with +1100 odds coming in. He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great.
Nick was boring and pitchy. Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week. Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition.
Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds . These of course were the early odds. He was considered original for picking an "odd song". He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night.
Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good.
Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds. Great voice and a great sense of humor. He's a real standout. Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit. Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig".
Jared Cotter followed. He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition. The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good.
22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next. "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon. Though the judges felt he performed okay. Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.
Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition. He was the last to perform. He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start.
Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys. Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.
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